Why are You Panicking?

"Hitchhiker, grab your towel and don't panic!"
-The Ultimate Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

Before "Hurricane" Irene hit NYC, people seemed to lose their minds. Two days before the hurricane happened to be my grocery day. I saw people in BJ's with 2 full carts of food. It was like they were preparing for the end of the world. If the disaster is bad enough to warrant that much stuff, you may want to just avoid the disaster entirely (like those areas that were evacuated).

The question is, what made people panic like that? What caused people to hoard batteries and flashlights like we were going to be plunged into 10 years of darkness? Why did people who feared the idea of losing power also purchase lots of meat, especially if they would not have any refrigeration?

How people react is affected by what information they are presented with, and the manner in which the information is presented. In the case of the hurricane, the information was presented like NYC was going to crumble. It also didn't help that the media piggybacked it with the "earthquake" from earlier in the week.

A example of this presentation issue can be seen elsewhere. In The Survivor's Club, the author looked at airline flights, and why people seemed to see air travel as dangerous.

He started out by asking: Why do people perceive the danger to be so great? Barnett studied the front page of The New York Times and found the answer. Page-one coverage of airplane accidents was sixty times greater than reporting on HIV/AIDS; fifteen hundred times greater than auto hazards; and six thousand times greater than cancer, the second leading killer in America after heart disease.

What are my chances of dying on my next flight? In the aviation safety field, it’s known as Q: death risk per randomly chosen flight. Analyzing all the data from the last ten years, here’s Barnett’s bottom line: When you get on your next domestic flight, your chance of being killed—your Q—is one in sixty million. That means you could fly every day for the next 164,000 years before you would perish in a crash.

Even if you somehow ended up in a plane crash—a remarkably unlikely if—your chances of dying are still unbelievably small. Believe it or not, the survival rate in plane crashes is 95.7 percent. Yes, 95.7. More precisely, the National Transportation Safety Board analyzed all the airplane accidents between 1983 and 2000. Some 53,487 people were involved in those incidents, and 51,207 survived. Hence, the survival rate of 95.7.

The front page appears to tell us what is important, and we've started looking at the 24-hour news cycle as our way of staying "informed." The problem is, we rarely do any evaluation on our own, taking everything at face value. This is worsened by the fact that the papers and news channels present their information in order to catch viewers and hold them. Information presentation is a competition, and the real losers are people who don't do independent research or look to multiple sources.

What is the goal of training?

Standing around thinking to myself about some idea on martial arts, I've came up with the hypothesis that the goal of training is to be able to consistently mitigate and/or reproduce the effects of luck in a confrontation. Those two terms seem contradictory, but let me explain, since it's really a matter of perspective.

Put two untrained individuals in a fight and let them slug it out. Most likely, you will see wild swings, some weak kicks, probably some biting, and most likely it will end with one person too tired/hurt to continue, or a luck hit that ends the fight. Targeting will probably be terrible: punches that hit the chest, hooking punches that go to far and make the forearm hit, etc. In this case, the luck is your opponent not being able to continue or you landing the strike that ends the fight.

Let's focus on the strike. Wild swings can be very ineffective. Punch someone in the pectoral and you're not going to get much of a reaction out of them, unless you know koshijutsu and understand where to hit (this is one of my favorite ways of screwing with my friends). Similar for strikes to the skull, especially if you hit with the wrong part of your hand. However, a properly aligned strike to a proper part of the jaw can cause a knockout, and one to the nose can incapicitate.

So you take the wild swinger and train them in some form of punching, like boxing. By teaching them how to strike and where to hit, you increase their chances of reproducing that hit that will damage their opponent. They train to the point where they can reproduce the technique on command. Now, as MMA has shown us, there's no guarantee to the hit knocking the person out every time. However, if when the person started, it was a 1 in 50 chance, training has reduced that to maybe a 1 in 5 chance. So, that's the reproduction of luck.

From a defender standpoint, you are attempting to mitigate their luck. If someone is punching you, you are attempting to lower their chance of hurting you.

However, this is really just a reproduction of luck all over again. Assume the attacker has some level of skill, and throws a punch. If our untrained defender happens to get out of the way, that was luck. If the attacker knows what they are doing, the defender will eventually be beaten up, yet somewhere in there, the defender will be lucky enough to avoid some punches, and maybe get a lucky, fight-ending punch in there.

Training is to reproduce this. Instead of getting hit 50 times in a fight, training to reproduce a valid defense may reduce this to 5, with the hopes of it being zero (although that may just be another level of luck). In fact, good training should give the defender the ability to have some control over the fight such that they do not find themselves in range of so many punches to begin with.

Stick to the plan

Maybe it's the fact that I was in the Army. Maybe it's the fact that I hate things going wrong. Whatever it is, I like plans. Just the basic idea of having some insight into what we are doing.

Now, I'm not a planning freak. I learned long ago that you really can't plan everything out perfectly. This is especially true when it comes to dating. Rarely will you pull off a perfectly planned date, without needing to adapt some things.

However, I do like the idea of having some starting and reference points. You know, "Meet here, at this time." At least then, when stuff falls apart, no one is swinging in the breeze.

Strangely, even this can be too much for some. Nothing like walking into a bar where you are supposed to meet, getting a beer, and 10 minutes later, right after you text that you are at the location, you get a text telling you that they decided to meet somewhere else.

An eye for fighting

"Shall I tell you the difference between you and I? Level. It's like the story of the monkey trying to capture the moon. No matter how he struggles, it's just the moon's reflection on the water he sees. So he only sinks into the water. Time after time, he sinks. Your fangs will never reach me."

Ok, so this post is going to get a little nerdy, and reference some anime/manga (like the above quote from Bleach). This past Sunday, I attended a seminar that included Jujitsu and Kali. The Jujitsu stuff was pretty straight forward for me, due to previous training. However, there was something about the Kali instruction, as well as my own training.

It reminded me of an episode of Naruto. Long story short, one of the characters has the ability to see and copy or dissect someone else's techniques. The problem in this episode is that he runs into an opponent whose taijutsu (unarmed techniques) is so much better and faster, that even though he can see the technique, there is no way for him to physically counter, because his body's not fast enough.

Now, when you first start training in just about anything, you're pretty much going through so much sensory overload, that even the simplest maneuvers are hard to completely grasp. I mean, you have to deal with your feet, hands, and balance, and your opponents feet, hands, and balance, and the intricacies of where both exist in space and time at any given moment of the technique. During this phase, it's funny to watch white belts.

However, as you get better, you can see the techniques a lot easier, and you can duplicate them fairly easily. There's a lot less "brain" involved. You feet will do what they have to do, and you can naturally position all of the other parts.

While I was at the seminar, Datu Rich Acosta (7th degree Black Belt), demonstrated a number of techniques with the Escrima, but then showed how they directly translated to unarmed fighting. The thing is, he was EXTREMELY fast when it came to the unarmed parts. I definitely couldn't fully catch is hand movements when I saw the techniques. Even as I was able to catch on what was happening, the next thing becomes actually knowing how to react to it. For something that fast, you can't "think". Training will attempt to mitigate the need to figure out what's happening, by using all of your sensory inputs, especially touch, to know what is coming next.

The second issue, though, is disparity in skill.

Now, there's a series of disparities between myself and Leo, who is my current instructor. I started training around 14 years ago, but due to the military, there was a long period where I didn't advance in my training. Meanwhile, Leo has been training for the past 25 years or so. I can completely see what he does, but my ability to stop it (and some of my ability to completely replicate it) isn't there. Interestingly enough, it creates a moving bar for my standard of achievement.

To all the Debbie Downers

To all the Debbie Downers: Yeah, I know the war isn't over. Thanks for the fucking update.

That's not the point. Today is a symbol of victory and revenge against a man who who carved into history a tragedy that defined the past 10 years of our lives, killed innocent civilians, twisted and bastardized Islam to support his evil ends, polarized a nation, and hid just out of reach from our grasp until he was killed in a damn MANSION by silent professionals who may never be able to tell the story that we all want to hear.

Today is a day of joy for all those who lost friends and family, brothers and sisters in arms, and grew up with the images of the attacks burned into their brains.

You can't take this moment away from us.

What's that in my pocket??

Ladies, feel free to just reach in there.

I found this site Everyday Carry, in which individuals post the things that they carry with them on a daily basis. I decided that I would post here what I carry in my pockets (minus talking about my duty stuff and pocket change). I will also include what is usually in my bag, since I pretty much always have one with me.

Pockets
I tend to wear carpenter's pants, so I get that extra pocket on the side of my leg. I also wear covert tactical pants, which add a hidden pocket on each leg, as well as a couple of other ones.

• Wallet
• Small notepad
• 2 pens (usually Zebra F-301)
  
• 1 Sharpie pen (fine point)
• Keys (may be in jacket in winter)
• Store program tags (placed on this, so they sit flat)
• Personal phone and work phone (placed in either the carpenter's pocket or the leg pockets)
• Folding knife

There is also the "Bag stuff." Depending on where I am going there is a small bag and a large bag. Either way, these things are usually in them:

• Leatherman Charge
  
• Megapro 15-in-1 Screwdriver
• Lock Pick set (because someone locked their baby in the apartment, or the fact that the desks at my office have push locks, but no keys)
• Hex key multi-tool (I have repaired many things, including Maureen's chairs)
• Toothbrush (someone else always has toothpaste)
• USB wall plug adapter (most phones now come with this, since they include the usb cable)
  
• Phone charging cable (since a lot of things now use USB micro, I can carry one cord for both phones)
• Inova flashlight (Need to find something on the floor after the movie? Looking under a couch? Search Warrant? This is extremely bright for the money it costs).
• Kindle (trips are boring, and if I'm trapped, at least I can read).
  

So that's about it. I think I have added a camera to the mix from time to time, now that I have one that can fit in a pocket. Feel free to let me know about the stuff you regularly carry. Ladies, don't tell me about your makeup.

Chewing the fat

Last week, I decided to get my body fat measured via caliper. I decided to do this after I learned that the far reading scales can be off by as much as 5 in the measurement, and can be influenced by how hydrated you are. I also had this grand plan of dropping from 184 lbs down to 172 or so. Basically, that was my pre-Afghanistan weight, and I remember being a faster runner (sub 7-minute miles).

Anyway, my body fat measurement using the Jackson/Pollock 3 caliper method was an 8.2. That puts me in the athletic range. However, this method of measuring also has a deviation of +/- 2%. The essential fat range for men is 2-5%, and I probably want to stay away from that.

So now comes the new question: can I drop muscle mass and retain a high (if not obtain a higher) strength to weight ratio?

Some of you may ask, "Are you sure that your run time is due to your weight?" I'm pretty sure of this (unless I'm getting old, although women in bars tell me I look 24). Back in the Army, I was never much of a "runner". That is, I MAYBE got out one a week, in the spring, and ran. Also, any mandatory runs, and running during summer training.

There's always the thought of going vegan, but I like meat. And don't even try to sell me on those vegan, tofu meat-substitutes that taste like crap. Tofurky? To-fuck yourself.