Preparing for the worst (Part 2)

Like I said in Part 1, I would not go over the HARDEST thing to prepare for in a disaster type situation.

The hardest thing to prepare for is boredom. Boredom will lead to complacency, which will then compromise security and other means for survival. No matter the war or disaster, there will be a lull. Minutes, hours, days, there is no telling how long it will last. In a safe situation, a book can help pass the time. Group interaction and games are useful, especially if there are kids.

If you're not in a safe area, that lull will usually end suddenly. You cannot be "switched on" all the time. You would go crazy, and your system is not developed to handle it. Furthermore, you won't be able to operate in everyday life.

Imagine walking down a dark alley, in an area that you are unfamiliar with. Most likely, if you are smart, you will be extremely aware of what's going on. You'll be wary of that bum sleeping near the dumpster. You'll look toward every noise. You'll be "ready" to move at the first sign of danger, although it will probably be more of a jump and a high-pitched yell when a rat scurries past. In any case, that's like being "switched on," albeit with no training of what to do in that state. The thing is, you can't be like that constantly, or you will become a nervous wreck. It's best to not always be in those situations.

To-Shin Do teaches the ideas of Condition White (completely relaxed), Condition Yellow (aware that something may be happening), Condition Orange (aware of a threat), and Condition Red (actively dealing with a threat). Condition white is what you are normally in at home or at work, in a place you feel completely safe. Yellow is where you operate when you're unfamiliar with your surroundings, or aware of general potential danger. Orange is when you've identified the specific danger and are prepared to deal with it. Red means it's go time.

You NEED to switch off. Especially if you were just "turned on" for an extended period of time. You can't run red all day. Even in a combat zone, you'll drop to white if there's enough security that you are able to sleep.

And that last point brings us to the most important part of preparedness and self-defense: self-protection. It's not "the best defense is a good offense." It's the idea that, within the realm of your control, you avoid situations that will place you in danger and force you to defend yourself. Sometimes, the long way is just safer. Sometimes that gut instinct is completely right.

For example, I like to listen to my MP3 player when I travel. I have trouble not listening to what's going on around me. I overhear too much some times, so I like to drown it out. When I'm on the train, I'm into my music and my book. Granted, I'm still aware of my surroundings (Condition Yellow). I still glance around, and the music isn't so loud that I can't hear anything else. I'm not good at turning off completely.

However, I occasionally I'll either turn off the music to hear (why leaving the headphones in to make it seem like I'm not), or take the headphones out. One of those times is withing the last block or two leading to my apartment (no matter how much you vary your route, there is only one way to get into your door). The neighborhood's nice, but I don't take chances. I turn music off, take one headphone out, the other tuck into my collar. As I unchain the gate, my body motion is such that I am able to look in the direction that I came. Once the key is in the front door, I look behind me as I open the door, and enter, ensuring it shuts behind me. I'm in Condition Yellow for about a minute. Once I'm inside, it's back to Condition White.

I'm not conducting SLLS (pronounced "sills," it's a combat patrolling technique that stands for "Stop, Look, Listen, and Smell"). I mean switching to a low level of awareness and preparedness. Should something happen, I don't have to go from zero to hero to deal with the situation, and I've gained vital seconds in evaluating my situation.

While I was talking on the phone to a friend of mine, she said "Patrick, not everyone is a bad-ass like you and has combat training." This is true. That doesn't mean that you can't develop and internalize the ideas that would help this. Here's a list of a few books that will at least introduce you to ideas that professionals use to make themselves safe, as well as assist you in thinking of how to prepare:

• The Gift of Fear
• The Survivors Club: The Secrets and Science That Could Save Your Life
• Meditations on Violence: A Comparison of Martial Arts and Real World Violence
• Gang Leader for a Day
• Spycraft: The Secret History of the CIA's Spytechs, from Communism to Al-Qaeda
• Master of Disguise: My Secret Life in the CIA
• The Zombie Survival Guide
• The Ranger Handbook
• Earth Abides

Feel free to ask me about any of these, or why they made the list.

The three most important things that I can recommend are: do not limit your scope of knowledge, don't let your new found knowledge cripple you, and always carry a small notebook and a pen. On the first point, if something makes you curious, learn about it. I'm reading Packing For Mars. I am not going into space any time soon, but I have learned a lot of interesting thing in planning and consideration. Even if you can't completely use the subject, you can abstract the ideas. Here's are two of my takeaways from that book:

• Not that bravery has been entirely phased out. Those recommended astronaut attributes also include “Ability to Function Despite Imminent Catastrophe.” If something goes wrong, everyone’s clarity of mind is needed.
• “I don’t know if we…have the mentality—I don’t want to say ‘guts’—to take the kind of risks we did when we [went to the moon] the first time…. And that’s a sad commentary.” After all, no matter how much you plan and how carefully you engineer things, there will always be problems. The safety manager of the eighth Apollo mission once famously pointed out: “Apollo 8 has 5,600,000 parts…. Even if all functioned with 99.9 percent reliability, we could expect 5,600 defects.” On the other hand, as they say, failing to plan is planning to fail.

Once you start expanding your knowledge, you will learn a few things. First, you really know nothing. Second, that there are some really useful things to learn. Last, there are a lot of things that can kill you. If you dwell too much on this, it will cripple your ability to act. You will live life in fear of the next step, because you fear that it will kill you. That's as good as being dead. Don't run recklessly into life, but understand the danger and mitigate them. I know electricity is dangerous, so I make sure to trip the breaker, and test the circuit before installing a new light switch. If anything, remember the Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear from the book Dune:

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.

On the last point, I ALWAYS carry a small notebook. It's great when you get some random idea that you can jot it down quickly, so it's not lost to the ether. That website you saw, that problem that came up, that thing you need to buy; all things that the notebook can preserve for you until they are solved. Cross out tasks and info when you are done with them. When the notebook fills, get a new one, go through the old one, and transfer anything you still want. Similarly, use that Amazon wishlist. Come across a book that might be interesting in the future? Put it on the wishlist, and you'll get to it some day.

Preparing for the worst (Part 1)

Every student learns the magic number 3. Whether you’re an F-15 fighter pilot or a single mom, in a car accident or taking a walk in the park, the number 3 will keep you alive. The Rule of 3 states that you cannot survive:

• 3 SECONDS WITHOUT SPIRIT AND HOPE
• 3 MINUTES WITHOUT AIR
• 3 HOURS WITHOUT SHELTER IN EXTREME CONDITIONS 3 DAYS WITHOUT WATER
• 3 WEEKS WITHOUT FOOD
• 3 MONTHS WITHOUT COMPANIONSHIP OR LOVE
  -The Survivors Club

Now that that "Hurricane" Irene has passed, I think it's time to talk about preparing for bad situations. I got a bunch of questions during that time, so I figure it would be good to put that info out there for everyone. I don't know about most of you, but I've been preparing for the Zombie Apocalypse* for quite some time now. Most of you probably aren't ready for something on that level.

At all.

In fact, most of you probably aren't ready for anything that alters your day-to-day routine or removes certain normally used structure from your lives.

The best survivors understand that normal is just a fleeting state of mind. Indeed normalcy may seem steady and constant, but it’s really just the intermission between the chaos and messiness of life. Survivors accept that life probably won’t ever return to the way it used to be. So they let go, adapt, and embrace the “new normal.”
-The Survivors Club

The first thing to remember is that you CANNOT plan for every eventuality. It's impossible, and trying to do so will leave you unable to do anything, because you'll have too much to deal with. I recommend that you become familiar with Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. For a disaster, you need the bottom 2, self-esteem, and problem solving & creativity. We'll get back to this in a moment.

The next step is to build up your level of preparedness from small problems to large. Don't try to plan for a hurricane if you can't tighten the screws on a chair. Amazingly, you'll find that all the things needed for a light emergency are also useful in big one. My first idea for preparing for small problems is to get:

• A hammer
• A Screwdriver and/or a Leatherman
• A flashlight (get more than one, and put one in your car) and spare batteries
• A small, battery powered AM/FM radio.
• First aid materials. At a minimum, be able to deal with small cuts, large wounds, and pain. Tampons can plug small bullet wounds.

For non-prolonged problems and disasters, those items will tide you over until help or emergency services can be obtained.

The next step is to prepare for prolonged problems and disasters. Take the things that you can't do yourself and try to mitigate the effects of what happens when they are gone.

• Can you make electricity? That's what the flashlight is for (maybe you need a generator).
• Have a cow to slaughter? Might want to get a few days worth of food. Technically, if there is a chance of power loss, refrigeration will be lost, so get food that doesn't need it, and requires little to no preparation. A fridge can keep stuff cool for a day after losing power, but only if you don't open it.
• Do you have a well? Get a gallon of water per-day per-person to tide you over. I recommend gallon bottles, and use that to fill a smaller container, rather than but a bunch of bottles, which drives up the cost, or the giant 3-gallon bottles which become hard to move.

Next, prepare for the specific disaster, especially if you know it is coming. You don't need to be an expert, but you need to understand what dangers are there, especially if you know what disaster is coming. For example:

• Wind related? Beware of flying debris and branches that will break windows.
• Water related? Flooding. Evacuate to high ground early.
• Earthquake? Get under a table (Avoid the doorway).
• Fire. You can go the fire-extinguisher route for a kitchen fire , but you're probably better off just getting out of there for forest blazes. Also, regularly clear brush around your house.

Also, as much as the Zombie Survival Guide may seem like a joke, it is actually a very informative book on disaster preparedness and survival, even if you ignore the zombie part.

Another small point is to think of what you need to do in order to be mobile. Occasionally, a disaster will force you to move. Figure out what you will definitely need, what you can actually move, and what may be available on the other end. Don't bring 8 gallons of water if you're moving to somewhere with running water. That's partially why I advocated gallon bottles, and not the huge 3 gallon ones. Also, you probably use sensible footwear (not Army shoes and golf shoes, Andrea).

Lastly, mitigate the chances of problems should a disaster arise. If you have a family, at least make sure basic ideas of the plans are understood. If there is potential for danger, you should at least be aware of it so your brain isn't completely shocked should something go wrong. For example, you know what I do every time I get on a plane? Locate the nearest exit, and listen to the damn flight attendant. You may think they are there for just drinks and peanuts, but they actually do a lot:

When you board a plane, you’re probably accustomed to some friendly banter from the flight attendants. They welcome you, ask where you’re from, and make idle talk about the weather. It may seem like empty chatter, and you may wonder how they can stand saying “Hi, how are you?” to three hundred travelers. But this is serious business. They’re not just being friendly; they’re profiling you. For starters, they’re checking to see whether you’re fit for flying or whether you’re under the influence. They’re also looking for suspicious behavior including clues of terrorist activity. One of their other main objectives is to identify ABPs. In the parlance of flight safety, that means “able-bodied passenger.” In an emergency, ABPs are the ones they call upon for help. Flight attendants are trained to identify ABPs as they board and to keep track of where they are on the plane. ABPs are typically solo travelers. They’re alert, healthy, and physically fit. They’re often wearing clothing that suggests some kind of military, law enforcement, or firefighter training. They’re likely to be in the top 10 percent on John Leach’s 10–80–10 scale.

She’s crunched the numbers on who gets out alive and who doesn’t. When I ask her the bottom line—who survives?—her answer is blunt: “Young, slender men.” Agility and strength make the biggest difference when you’re trying to wriggle through airplane wreckage or slip through a twenty-inch-wide emergency exit.

For instance, most passengers believe you can survive an hour without an oxygen mask after a plane decompresses at high altitude. In fact, you’ve got only a few seconds. They also believe you’ve got thirty minutes to flee a burning plane. In reality, as you’re about to see, you’ve got only ninety seconds... That’s all. Ninety. Any longer and a fire could burn through the aluminum skin of the plane and the cabin temperature will soar to more than two thousand degrees. Soon after, a flashover fire will consume everything. In just ninety seconds, the cabin turns into an inferno. That’s less than the time it probably took to read this page.

You should never drink a beer or a martini before getting on a plane. You should never pop a sleeping pill before flying. You shouldn’t nap or listen to your iPod when you’re rolling down the runway. And you definitely shouldn’t wait for the thud of landing to wake up.
-The Survivors Club

In Part 2, there will be more on situational awareness, and I'll discuss one of the hardest things to be prepared for.

*Just as a quick disclaimer, you can look at the idea of "Zombie Apocalypse" to mean some type of catastrophic, world-altering disaster, in which most infrastructure breaks down. It's easier to think of a "zombie," than it is to imagine that your fellow human has entered a state of survival such that they would be willing to kill you without remorse.

The Obvious Answer

It's been a while since I've written. I've been pretty busy.

Busy doing what?

Not blogging.

And that leads us into this post.

We've probably all heard the joke "Why did the chicken cross the road, " and it's answer "To get to the other side." However, most of us don't understand why that joke is actually funny. In fact, to most of us, it's not. And it's great that people try to make up funny endings to it, but that's really missing the point.

"To get to the other side." We know this. It's inherent in the idea of crossing the road, but it doesn't answer why. This joke is designed to poke fun at those answers that don't actually answer the question proposed. The answer is in no way false, but it demonstrates no knowledge of motivation or cause for the action. Ponder this example:

• "Why did he kill the guy?" "He wanted him dead."
• "Why aren't we making a profit?" "Our income is less than our expenses."
• "Why is this here." "I put it there."

A funny thing I like to do, is give this obvious answer when someone asks me a question, but ONLY if I can immediately follow it up with the actual answer. Otherwise, it's just mean spirited and ignorant, and silence would have been a more appropriate answer.

I was reminded about this during a discussion with my sensei about "Mushin no shin" or "Mind without mind." At some point in your martial arts training, if you're serious about training, this idea will present itself. From Wikipedia:

Mushin is achieved when a person's mind is free from thoughts of anger, fear, or ego during combat or everyday life. There is an absence of discursive thought and judgment, so the person is totally free to act and react towards an opponent without hesitation and without disturbance from such thoughts. At this point, a person relies not on what they think should be the next move, but what is their trained natural reaction or what is felt intuitively. It is not a state of relaxed, near-sleepfulness, however. The mind could be said to be working at a very high speed, but with no intentions, plans or direction. In analogy a clear mind is compared to a still pond, which is able to clearly reflect the moon and trees. But just as waves in the pond will distort the picture of reality, so will the thoughts we hold onto disrupt the true perception of reality.

However, at the same time, you're probably going to ask someone the question, "How will I know when I've attained mushin?"

And some jerk will give you the obvious answer, "If you're thinking about it, you probably don't have it."

Guess what.

They don't have it either.

What is the goal of training?

Standing around thinking to myself about some idea on martial arts, I've came up with the hypothesis that the goal of training is to be able to consistently mitigate and/or reproduce the effects of luck in a confrontation. Those two terms seem contradictory, but let me explain, since it's really a matter of perspective.

Put two untrained individuals in a fight and let them slug it out. Most likely, you will see wild swings, some weak kicks, probably some biting, and most likely it will end with one person too tired/hurt to continue, or a luck hit that ends the fight. Targeting will probably be terrible: punches that hit the chest, hooking punches that go to far and make the forearm hit, etc. In this case, the luck is your opponent not being able to continue or you landing the strike that ends the fight.

Let's focus on the strike. Wild swings can be very ineffective. Punch someone in the pectoral and you're not going to get much of a reaction out of them, unless you know koshijutsu and understand where to hit (this is one of my favorite ways of screwing with my friends). Similar for strikes to the skull, especially if you hit with the wrong part of your hand. However, a properly aligned strike to a proper part of the jaw can cause a knockout, and one to the nose can incapicitate.

So you take the wild swinger and train them in some form of punching, like boxing. By teaching them how to strike and where to hit, you increase their chances of reproducing that hit that will damage their opponent. They train to the point where they can reproduce the technique on command. Now, as MMA has shown us, there's no guarantee to the hit knocking the person out every time. However, if when the person started, it was a 1 in 50 chance, training has reduced that to maybe a 1 in 5 chance. So, that's the reproduction of luck.

From a defender standpoint, you are attempting to mitigate their luck. If someone is punching you, you are attempting to lower their chance of hurting you.

However, this is really just a reproduction of luck all over again. Assume the attacker has some level of skill, and throws a punch. If our untrained defender happens to get out of the way, that was luck. If the attacker knows what they are doing, the defender will eventually be beaten up, yet somewhere in there, the defender will be lucky enough to avoid some punches, and maybe get a lucky, fight-ending punch in there.

Training is to reproduce this. Instead of getting hit 50 times in a fight, training to reproduce a valid defense may reduce this to 5, with the hopes of it being zero (although that may just be another level of luck). In fact, good training should give the defender the ability to have some control over the fight such that they do not find themselves in range of so many punches to begin with.

To all the Debbie Downers

To all the Debbie Downers: Yeah, I know the war isn't over. Thanks for the fucking update.

That's not the point. Today is a symbol of victory and revenge against a man who who carved into history a tragedy that defined the past 10 years of our lives, killed innocent civilians, twisted and bastardized Islam to support his evil ends, polarized a nation, and hid just out of reach from our grasp until he was killed in a damn MANSION by silent professionals who may never be able to tell the story that we all want to hear.

Today is a day of joy for all those who lost friends and family, brothers and sisters in arms, and grew up with the images of the attacks burned into their brains.

You can't take this moment away from us.

Chewing the fat

Last week, I decided to get my body fat measured via caliper. I decided to do this after I learned that the far reading scales can be off by as much as 5 in the measurement, and can be influenced by how hydrated you are. I also had this grand plan of dropping from 184 lbs down to 172 or so. Basically, that was my pre-Afghanistan weight, and I remember being a faster runner (sub 7-minute miles).

Anyway, my body fat measurement using the Jackson/Pollock 3 caliper method was an 8.2. That puts me in the athletic range. However, this method of measuring also has a deviation of +/- 2%. The essential fat range for men is 2-5%, and I probably want to stay away from that.

So now comes the new question: can I drop muscle mass and retain a high (if not obtain a higher) strength to weight ratio?

Some of you may ask, "Are you sure that your run time is due to your weight?" I'm pretty sure of this (unless I'm getting old, although women in bars tell me I look 24). Back in the Army, I was never much of a "runner". That is, I MAYBE got out one a week, in the spring, and ran. Also, any mandatory runs, and running during summer training.

There's always the thought of going vegan, but I like meat. And don't even try to sell me on those vegan, tofu meat-substitutes that taste like crap. Tofurky? To-fuck yourself.

Sizing up the Competition

So, I am currently competing for a slot on one of the teams at work. Without saying too much, let's just say that this team is really physical. Thanks to the fact that many people do not know how to use BCC on email, I also know that there are 30 other individuals in the running. While that doesn't seem like much, that number is around 3% of individuals who would be eligible to apply. Seems a lot bigger now, huh? I think in personally know 8 or 9 of them.

So what do we have to do at the tryouts? No one really knows. There are no published standards, except for one shooting test, which is standard for our job. All we have is a packing list, a date, and the fact that it will take 36 hours. We were also told that water would be involved.

So you have 30 guys, all doing whatever training method that they can, with no metric to compare themselves to, outside of themselves. Some do Crossfit, Military Athlete, Ladder 25 (just heard about this today, but have no info on it), some do workouts that have been floating around and are designed for trying out for another team, which is harder to get onto. It's insane.

So you may wonder, how many slots are there for this team? I have no idea, but as far as I'm concerned, there is only one slot.

That's really the mentality that I have to go into this thing with. I mean, if there are 5 slots, you can't shoot to be the 5th best. That's just lazy. You want to coast past the others and gain a slot without any worry. You have to want to crush the competition. I'm literally sizing up the status of every other person that I came across. What's their workout, who do they know, what do they know about the workouts of others.

We're all just waiting and wondering.


And working out.